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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. Insights form a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective



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Éditeur :

Kluwer Academic Publishers


Paru le : 2001



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Description

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Pages
n.c
Collection
n.c
Parution
2001
Marque
Kluwer Academic Publishers
EAN papier
0306475626
EAN PDF
0306475626
Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
1
Nombre pages imprimables
10
Taille du fichier
1445 Ko
Ce livre est accessible aux handicaps Voir les informations sur l'accessibilité
Prix
160,94 €

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